New data for FY 2025 shows that the H-1B story has shifted from a general “approval rate” narrative to something more specific and structural: a sharp fall in new approvals for Indian IT services firms, even as overall US tech continues to hire on H-1B.
According to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) using USCIS’s H-1B Employer Data Hub, the top seven Indian IT companies together received only 4,573 new (initial employment) H-1B approvals in FY 2025 – the lowest in a decade and about 70% lower than in 2015, and roughly 37% lower than in FY 2024.
Understanding the H-1B Shift: From Indian Outsourcing to US Tech Giants
Instead of a blanket drop in all H-1B approvals, the data points to a redistribution:
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The top four slots for new H-1B approvals are now held by US-based tech giants like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google, not Indian IT outsourcers.
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Among Indian companies, only Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) appears in the top five US H-1B employers, and only three Indian companies feature at all in the top 25 for “initial employment” petitions.
This marks a structural shift away from the old outsourcing-heavy model—where Indian IT service firms dominated new H-1B usage—towards direct hiring by American product and platform companies.
What the Numbers Actually Show for Indian IT
For Indian IT services majors, the slump is clear and quantifiable:
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Across the top seven Indian IT firms, new H-1B approvals fell to 4,573 in FY 2025.
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TCS obtained 846 “initial employment” approvals in FY 2025, down from 1,452 in FY 2024 and 1,174 in FY 2023.
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At the same time, TCS reported 5,293 “continuing employment” approvals (extensions for existing H-1B workers) with a very low overall denial rate of 1.9%, though its extension rejection rate rose from 4% to 7% for 2025.
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Infosys, Wipro, LTIMindtree and others also show 1–2% denial rates on continuing-employment petitions, indicating that once workers are in the US system, extensions remain relatively safe.
In other words, the big change is not that Indian H-1B workers are being kicked out—it’s that far fewer new visas are being granted to Indian IT outsourcing companies.
Root Causes: Changing Business Models, Policy Pressure, and Costs
Instead of framing this as a generic “approval rate collapse,” it’s more accurate to see multiple overlapping drivers:
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US clients increasingly prefer local or “onshore” hiring and captive centers over traditional offshore-outsourcing-heavy staffing models.
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Indian IT firms themselves have been deliberately localizing—hiring more US workers, opening nearshore centers, and using fewer new H-1Bs at the junior level.
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Policy pressure and higher costs matter: the US is rolling out significantly higher H-1B and L-1 fees (including the revived $4,000/$4,500 fees and proposed increases), which disproportionately hit high-volume filers like large Indian IT companies.
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There is heightened scrutiny in some categories: approvals for “software engineer” roles at the labour-certification stage have been declining for several years, with certifications in that category falling from 40,378 in 2022 to 23,922 through Q3 of 2025.
So while RFEs and scrutiny are part of the picture, the main story in 2025 is structural realignment: fewer fresh H-1Bs for Indian IT outsourcers, more for large US-headquartered tech employers.
Impact on US Tech: No Talent Collapse, But a Different Mix
US tech as a whole is not seeing a broad H-1B freeze; in fact, the biggest American tech firms are now the largest initial H-1B employers.
However, this rebalancing has consequences:
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Indian IT companies may respond with more offshoring or nearshoring when onsite H-1B staffing becomes harder or more expensive.
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Smaller US firms that relied on Indian vendors for specialized skills may find traditional staffing models less straightforward, potentially affecting costs and project timelines.
For innovation, the concern is less “fewer H-1Bs overall” and more “who controls that talent”—with US-based tech giants increasingly dominating that space.
Indian Professionals: From US-Centric Dreams to a Multi-Country Strategy
For individual Indian professionals, the landscape is more complicated than a simple “approval rate slump,” but the anxiety is real:
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There are fewer fresh H-1B opportunities via big Indian IT services companies than there were five to ten years ago.
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Many are diversifying their plans: exploring Canada, the UK, Germany, and Australia; pursuing US study routes (F-1 + OPT + possible H-1B); or focusing on roles with US-headquartered employers who continue to file large numbers of H-1Bs.
Indian firms, meanwhile, are building more robust local-hiring strategies in the US and Europe, which means mid-career professionals may increasingly be hired directly as local employees rather than being moved via H-1B from India.
Looking Ahead: Policy, Pricing, and Strategy
The future of the H-1B program is likely to be shaped by:
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Fee hikes and regulatory changes that raise the cost of high-volume H-1B usage, especially for outsourcing-heavy models.
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Ongoing political scrutiny around perceived wage suppression or displacement, which keeps pressure on large IT outsourcers more than on US product companies.
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Continued low denial rates for “continuing employment,” suggesting US policy is not pushing existing H-1B workers out but is subtly discouraging large-scale new inflows via outsourcing channels.
For Indian IT, the message is clear: the old high-volume H-1B model is fading. For Indian tech talent, the H-1B is no longer the only—or even always the best—pathway; diversified global strategies and direct employment with US or other foreign employers are becoming just as critical.
